Order Value
Quantity × net buyer price.
Phase XXXIII / Transaction Economics Simulator
Stress the numbers.
Before the money.
A scenario engine for comparing transaction structures before assumptions become commitments.
Simulator doctrine
One deal.
Three realities.
Every opportunity is tested against conservative, base and strong cases. These are modelling scenarios—not forecasts—and must be replaced with verified commercial inputs.
Illustrative scenario architecture
CONSERVATIVELower buyer price · higher factory cost · slower payment · greater friction.
BASE CASENormalised commercial assumptions and realistic execution terms.
STRONG CASEBetter sourcing terms, stronger pricing and efficient cash conversion.
Calculation sequence
REVENUE
Delivered Supply Cost
Factory cost + logistics + transaction friction.
Contribution
Order value less attributable transaction costs.
Maximum Exposure
Peak cumulative cash requirement during the cycle.
Capital Efficiency
Contribution measured against peak capital deployed.
Downside Test
Determine whether the transaction survives adverse assumptions.
Funding preference hierarchy
01BUYER FUNDED
Deposits or advance commitments reduce exposure.
02BACK-TO-BACK
Supplier commitments follow buyer commitments.
03SUPPLIER CREDIT
Terms bridge part of the production cycle.
04TRADE FINANCE
External facilities used selectively and priced into economics.
05OWN CAPITAL
Last resort and explicitly capped.
Phase XXXIII rule
THE BEST MARGIN
IS NOT ALWAYS THE BEST DEAL.
Luxophy prefers resilient, repeatable transactions with controlled capital exposure over attractive headline margins that require fragile assumptions.